Climate change impacts in Australia

In the article: “Summary for policymaker”, the figure on page 7 shows widespread impacts around the world that can a result of global warming. The impacts that can strike Australia is physical, biological and human and manage. The physical systems impacts mainly rivers and lakes, which can experience flooding or drought. The range of physical impacts in Australia is considered high. The biological system will impact terrestrial ecosystems in both north and south of the continent, and the range is considered medium to high. Marine ecosystem is also impacted. Especially the world largest coral reef; the Great Barrier Reef, is in danger. Human and managed systems like food production will be impacted and the range is considered medium.

According to the same article on page 23, there are 3 main regional key risks in Australia. The first one is change in community composition and structure of coral reef systems. In the long term, the risk and potential adaptation is considered very high. Ocean acidification, damaging cyclones and warming are factors for this. The second key risk is increased frequency and intensity of flood damage to infrastructure and settlements. The climatic driver is extreme precipitation. Risk and potential for adaptation is also considered very high in the long term, but not as high as the change in the coral reef. The third key risk is increased risks to coastal infrastructure and low-laying ecosystems, with widespread damage towards, the upper end of projected sea level rise rangers. The climatic drivers are damaging cyclones and sea level rise. Risk and potential for adaptation is considered medium to high in the long term. 

http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WG2AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf

Climate Phenomena and their relevance for Future Regional Climate Change

Northern Australia is located in the tropics, which is affected by the Australia monsoon circulation. The southern part is located in the extratropical westerly circulation which is affected by the middle latitude storm track and other threats. Eastern Australia is affected by both El Nino (dry conditions) and La Nina (wet conditions). It is very likely that Australia will continue to warm due to the global warming, and that will increase or change dramatically the climate and weather conditions over Australia. There are records that changes have already occurred because of small change in temperature, like increase in precipitations due warmer temperature in some places and drier conditions in La Nina years. All of the weather conditions in the different parts of Australia mentioned above, can increase and that will have dramatically effect.

Summary from the future regional climate change in Australia, page 1273

http://www.climatechange2013.org/report/full-report/

Summarize of the executive summary

The trend of a warmer climate in Australia has already begun and is going to continue through the 21^st century. Australia has already noticed warmer ocean- and surface temperatures, more hot extremes and fewer colder periods. Also change in rainfall patterns and increased greenhouse gases that already have cause warmer temperatures. The tropical cyclones are projected to increase in intensity in just a few years, and that will be dangerous. The change in annual rainfall will impact agriculture, rural livelihoods, ecosystems and urban water supplies. These threats have already occurred in a small level, but can increase rapidly in just a few years. Coral reefs in northern Australia have already noticed change due to global warming. Higher ocean surface temperatures have bleached huge amount of corals, and are continuing to do so. There are a lot of factors that depends on future vulnerability. Unfortunately, too few of them have got too little attention, and that has to change.

http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WGIIAR5-Chap25_FINAL.pdf

Most interesting threat

The economics in Australia rely on natural resources, agriculture, minerals, manufacturing and tourism. All of these factors are, and will be affected by climate change. Australia is known their agriculture, and it would be a disaster if this got affected. Also the tourism in country makes up a huge amount of the countries economics. A fast change in global warming can affect any of these factors without giving the inhabitants the opportunity to adopt themselves. In this case, this can have a dramatically effect on the economics in Australia. The economics of a country is important because it affects all the inhabitants, and this is why I think this threat was most interesting. I have always cared about my own economic, but also the economics of a country. That is why I care.

http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WGIIAR5-Chap25_FINAL.pdf

I have included one map of Australia showing how the anuual temperature have changed in the 21st century. The colors indicates temperatures, which is shown in the image below.

The grapht below shows how surface temperature have changed since 1900, and how it is predicted to change until 2100. 

Both of image and graph is taken from the article in the link below on page 1378 and 1379.

http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WGIIAR5-Chap25_FINAL.pdf

Severe Weather In Australia

Tornadoes

A tornado is a rapidly rotating narrow region of low pressure. They usually form during a very intense thunderstorm. The wind speeds are as high as 70 to 300 mph and the pressure can be as low as 900 mb. The first process that occurs is a rotating body of air horizontal on the ground, which happens because of vertical wind shear. Drag and friction at the surface causes the air to move more slowly near the ground and the wind speed is higher at higher altitudes. The second process is that the horizontal mass of rotating is lifted off the ground by the strong updraft wind of a thunderstorm. Thunderstorms occur in a cumulonimbus cloud, which is a vertical cloud with strong updraft wind. When the rotating mass of air is lifted off the ground and almost vertically it is considered a mesocyclone. The mesocyclone is fully developed in the updraft of the thunderstorm. A tornado will develop when the mesocyclone descends from the slowly rotating “wall cloud” in the lower part of the cloud. Once it touches the ground it is called a tornado. Tornadoes in the US usually travel from southwest to northeast or from west to east. The reason for this direction is because this is the normal direction of the prevailing winds over the US.

In Australia there is a myth that tornadoes do not occur here, but that’s not essentially true. Tornadoes do happen, but far from how many that occurs in the US. It occur more than 1000 tornadoes per year in the US, while in Australia it occurs 16 tornadoes in average per year.

US tornadoes source:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/extreme-events/us-tornado-climatology

Australia tornadoes source:

http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2010/06/04/2918660.htm

In the link below there is a very good map that shows all tornadoes in Australia from 1795 to 2012. You can press play, or drag the time button on the timeline and all tornadoes will show the location and the intensity scale for each one.

http://www.theage.com.au/data-point/TornadoesInAustralia

By scooping through the timeline, we can see that there are very few tornadoes with big intensities. And almost everyone occurs south in on the continent. Most of the tornadoes occur in Victoria, New south Wales and South Australia. There also some occurrence south in the Western Australia. 

This is a graph from the U.S Annual Tornado Count. According to this graph the number of tornadoes has increased in the last 30 years. It seems strange that the amount tornadoes have increased in just a few years. I think the reason for this must be related to global warming, and it is a result from the humans. Since the increase of tornadoes is very big, I don’t think that is just random occurrences. I would guess it is related to global warming. 

Hurricanes.

There are three main requirements for a hurricane to form and that is: Consistent heating of the surface, high humidity and Cumulus and Cumulonimbus Clouds. Because of the high humidity and warm temperature requirements it is normal that hurricanes form near the equator. Most of the hurricanes in Australia happen in the North, which makes sense, because the northern part of Australia is located close to equator.

There are three main hurricane formation regions, and the word for a hurricane differs from what region in the world we are referring to. In the Atlantic and east pacific it is called hurricane. In the Indian Ocean and near Australia it is called cyclones, and off the coast of China and Indonesia it is called typhoons.

According to the map below the direction of the hurricanes in the US travel from southeast to northwest. After a lot of research I did not figure out why this is the direction.

In northern Australia hurricanes is not that rare. There is an average of 13 hurricanes (cyclones) that occurs in Australia every year, according to the link below.

http://australia101.com/australia/climate-in-australia/australian-cyclones/

I tried to find out how many that hits US every year, so I could have something to compare it with, but did not find anything on the internet, unfortunately. 


Other sources:

http://australia101.com/australia/climate-in-australia/australian-cyclones/

http://www.tropicalweather.net/where-do-hurricanes-occur.html

Daily weather in Australia

The capital in my country is Canberra, and I am covering three days of forecasting of the weather in this city. The days I am covering is Friday 10/31, Saturday 11/01 and Sunday 11/02.

The forecast high on Friday is 86° F and the forecast low 57° F. The precipitation is estimated to be 0 %.

For Saturday the forecast high is 73° F and the forecast low 37° F. The precipitation is estimated to be at 8 %.

For Sunday, the last day the forecast high is 68° F and the forecast low is 40° F. The precipitation is estimated to be at 0%.

The average pressure over these three days is 29, 80 inches and the average pressure increased from Friday to Sunday. The average wind speed over this three day period is 11, 25 mph. From Friday to Sunday, the average wind speed increased.

The picture above is a satellite image taken from http://www.wunderground.com/. It shows that there are no clouds over Canberra when this picture was taken. The red arrow shows where Canberra is located. There are very few clouds at area, but far southeast of Canberra there are a few clouds, mostly low warm clouds with the color gray/white. The blue dot, far southwest on the image indicates some cold clouds. There are no precipitations in this area. The surface of the capital city is gray, which indicates cities. There are also some green areas which indicate parks and forested areas. Canberra is located beside a lake, which has a color light blue. Outside of the capital there are some textured patterns which indicates mountains.

Here is a picture taken from http://www.intellicast.com/. The image show pressure patterns along the southeastern part of Australia. From this image you can see a stationary front located west on the image, also u can see a cold front far southwest. There are no low and high pressure zones in this area, but you can tell that a low pressure zone is located southwest, out of the picture and a high pressure zone northeast out of the picture. You can tell that by looking at the pressure pattern and see where it increases and decreases.

This image is also taken from http://www.intellicast.com/. Here is a zommed out image of Australia. We can see three low pressure zones located over New Zealand, south of Australia, and one over southwestern part of Australia. There are also two High pressure zones, one located west for the country and one at the east. There are two cold fronts south of the country with the color blue, and both of them are moving northeast in the same direction. There is also one warm front located south of the country moving south, with red color. Two stationary fronts can be seen at this image. One is located over part of the continent at the southern part, and one is located over New Zealand. 

Global and Local winds in Australia

Australia is a huge country located in the Southern Hemisphere. It stretches from 10° - 40° south and 109° - 155° east. Most of the country is located in the Hadley cell, which goes from 0°-30° North/South. The southern part of Australia is located in the Ferrell cell that goes from 30° - 60° North/South. Since most of the country is located in the Hadley cell, most of the country is influenced by trade winds with southeast direction. The southern part, located in the Ferrell cell is influenced by westerlies with northwest direction. Australia is located in a High pressure belt at 30° south, the boundary between trade winds heading towards equator and westerlies heading towards the pole. At this region you have sinking air, which divergent at surface, usually leaving clear skies and sunny weather. This region is called the horse latitude.

The picture above show how the global winds influence Australia. The blue line at 30° south indicates a subtropical high pressure zone, between tropical trade winds from Hadley cell and prevailing westerlies from Ferrell cell. At this point, rising air from equator traveling both north and south, and subsides here. The subsiding air is very dry because it has dropped the moisture and precipitation over the tropics before it reaches this point. Because of the high pressure zone the subsiding air leaves sunny weather with almost no clouds. And the result is a very warm and dry climate, and this is the reason for the Australian desert at the subtropical zone.

The weather in Canberra is usually very dry, but that is not only because of the warm and dry climate from the subtropical high pressure zone. Which I also talked about earlier in one of my blog posts, Canberra is located in a leeward zone. That means the winds usually comes from inland heading towards the coast (see map above). Because of this you get very little precipitation at this area and also a factor for very warm summers and cold winters.

Above is a topography map of Australia. Australia is actually very flat, but there is some mountains as the map shows. The most famous is the Australian Alps, the ridge located southwest on the map. There are several winds associated with mountains like, Foehn and Chinook winds, mountain and valley breezes and Katabatic winds. Mountain and valley breezes are very common at the Australian Alps. At daytime, sun warms the slope of the vallay, causing air to rise and making a valley breeze. The reverse process happens at night, when the same slope cools. Then you have subsiding air going down slope and you have a mountain breeze.

Australia has a coastline all the way around the continent where land and sea breezes are common. Sea breezes are common at daytime, when sun warms the land, making a low pressure zone there. The temperature difference between land and ocean makes the pressure difference. Usually a higher pressure occurs over the ocean, where the temperature is lower than the land. Then the wind goes from high to low pressure as usual, and you have a sea breeze. The reverse process happens at night, when the land cools more quickly than the ocean. Then you have colder temperature at land surface, makes the pressure higher at land than the ocean. Now you have a land breeze going from higher pressure at land to lower pressure over ocean.

Sources: 

ttp://www.geo.arizona.edu/geo5xx/geo527/NewEnglandOrogen/neoindex.html

Typical Weather and Tourism in Australia

Australia is located on the southern hemisphere which means the winter month occurs in June, July and August. That is reversed from what we in the northern hemisphere is used to. The winter Solstice occurs on June 21, but can also occur between 20 and 22. Winter Solstice is the day in the year that has smallest amount of daylight. During this month the average maximum temperature is 12, 3 °C, while the average minimum temperature is 1, 4 °C. These measurements are considered for the capital Canberra. June is also the driest month in the year with least amount of precipitation. During the winter solstice, light rain is the most likely type of precipitation in Canberra. There are very few incidents where snow is occurring, and that is more likely to fall in the Australian Alps at higher elevation.

The summer solstice occurs on December 21. But can also occur on 20 and 22. During this month the average maximum temperature is 26, 3 °C and the average minimum temperature is 11, 9 °C. It is important to remember that this is for the capital city: Canberra. Australia is a huge country with huge differences in climate. On the summer solstice is moderate rain the most likely precipitation type to fall, because of high temperatures. There are no records of other types of precipitations during this day.

In Australia the spring equinox occurs on September 23. This is also reversed to what we are used to and it’s because the country is located on the southern hemisphere. During this month the average maximum temperature in Canberra is 16, 2 °C, and the average minimum temperature is 4 °C. In this month light rain is most likely to fall in Canberra. September is also the month of the year with most light rain.

The Autumnal equinox occurs on March 20, but can also occur on 19 and 21. In Canberra the average maximum temperature during this month is 24, 7 °C, and the average minimum temperature is 11, 5 °C. During this day it is most likely to fall rain if precipitation occurs. Both light rain and moderate rain are common. Snow is highly unlikely, and it usually never occurs in any month of the year in Canberra. 

Tourism

If you have ever been thinking about visiting Australia, I would recommend you to go in the summer season (December – February). But if I should recommend you one month I would aim for December, around the summer solstice. This is one of the warmest months, and has less precipitation then January and February. During this month I would definitely recommend you to go surfing. Australia is known for their super great surf spots all around the coasts of the country, especially on the East and North coast. Even if you are not quite into surfing I still recommend you to try it because Australia got one of the best surf spots in the world. If you prefer staying on the land I would recommend you to go hiking. This is a great way to explore the beautiful country of Australia, and try look for the kangaroos, which are very famous in Australia. You cannot miss this while you are there.

In December there are some weather hazards you should be aware of. Bushfires are very common all over the country, mostly inland where the climate is drier. But December is the month of the year where most bushfires occur, so you should keep that in mind if you choose to travel this month. You should also be aware of thunderstorms which is very common in the summer season, from December to February. Thunderstorms provide useful rainfall and it can also cause damage. Usually it occurs very frequently through the whole summer season, so this is something you definitely should keep in mind. Especially if you are out surfing, then I would recommend you to stay inside and wait for the thunderstorm is over. 

                        Come visit this paradise, where the only
                   dilemma is choosing the endless opportunities 
                   for what to do.

                                     I found this picture on: http://www.liztourism.com/top-things-to-do-when-you-are-in-australia/

Sources:

http://www.ga.gov.au/scientific-topics/astronomical/summer-and-winter-solstice¨

http://www.australia.com/about/key-facts/weather/canberra-weather.aspx

https://weatherspark.com/averages/34084/Canberra-Australian-Capital-Territory

http://www.australia.edu/Travel/top-outdoor-activities-in-australia.html

Temperature Controls in the city of Canberra in Australia

This is my first post in this blog and my second assignment. Today I am going to talk about what factors that controls the temperature in Australia. Like why is the temperatures in this city what they are, and the different processes.

Canberra, the capital of Australia is located in New South Wales, southeast in the country. Actually Canberra is an own state, called: “Australian Capital Territory”, just like Washington D.C in the US. The capital is located on latitude 35, 307 °S and longitude 149, 12°E.

The warmest month in this city is January with an average monthly temperature of 21, 05 °C (69, 8 °F). The coldest month is July with an average monthly temperature of 5, 75 °C (41 °F). The seasons in Canberra is reversed compared to Honolulu, when we have summer they have winter. Based on the information above the annual range of temperature for this city is 15, 3 °C (59 °F)

Websites where I found this information:

http://www.australia.com/about/key-facts/weather/canberra-weather.aspx

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_070282.shtml

            The geographic position is one of the factors that control the temperature in this city. I have a map below showing the normal wind currents in Australia along with Canberra marked as a red dot.

This image is found on: 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/archive.html?year=2009&month=09

The city is known for very cold winter temperatures and warm summer temperatures. That can be described from the wind currents and the geographic position. Canberra is located on the east coast with the winds normally coming from the west, towards the east. That means the city is located on the “Leeward” side of the continent. And the leeward location normally has warm summers and cold winter, the opposite of the windward position. You can compare this to the Island of O’ahu, where the leeward position is on the west coast, where the temperatures are hotter in summer and colder in winter, compared to the east coast. Without this effect the summer temperature in Canberra would be colder and winter temperature milder.

            There are many factors that control the temperature in Canberra, but there is one factor that we have learned in class that I don’t think has any relation to this city, and that is ocean currents. Although this city is located on the east coast, it is still located far from the sea, approximately 150 km inland. I don’t think the ocean currents affect the temperature in Canberra.

            The global change trend has led to a warmer earth, and by increasing the Earth’s average temperature a little bit can lead to major consequences. I think Canberra will be influenced in a lot of ways if the temperatures keep increasing. A warmer climate will also warm the ocean, and that will make the water molecules bigger and the water level eventually will increase. An increased water level will definitely affect Canberra, and the lands around, because I know there is a lot of agriculture in Australia.  There are also other factors that can happen. Maybe the differential heating between land and ocean will change, and that will definitely have some affect. 

Sources:

https://snl.no/Canberra

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_070282.shtml

http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/canberra/climate.shtml

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_070282.shtml

http://www.australia.com/about/key-facts/weather/canberra-weather.aspx


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canberra